Warm End to a Warm Month - July 31, 2012
Published Tuesday, July 31, 2012 8:40AM MDT
July will end with another day in the mid20s. I'll do some number-crunching later today & have a bit more of a monthly recap in tomorrow's WxBlog, but it appears we'll be about 1.5 degrees warmer than the 30yr Avg.
As mentioned in Monday morning's blog - it turned out to be a stormy afternoon/evening in parts of the Capital Rgn and areas east of the city.
Numerous funnel cloud sightings, several reports of wind & hail damage (hail the size of golf balls hit areas like Sherwood Park).
And yet...there were areas not too far from the storms that didn't even get a drop of rain.
Such is the nature of thunderstorms.
If we're going to get storms in Alberta today, the most likely zone will be southern Alberta.
Storms will likely develop in the foothills this afternoon. As those storms slide east, they should stay well to the south of the Capital region.
Areas from Red Deer south to Calgary may be in for some thunderstorms late afternoon/early evening.
Further north, showers & thunderstorms in the Athabasca region early this morning appear to be weakening as the move NE, but could give areas around Fort McMurray some precipitation.
Looking ahead to Thursday, an upper low swings through Central Alta.
Ahead of that system, expect some scattered showers & thunderstorms Wednesday night in the Edmonton area.
The bulk of the rain will fall through the day Thursday. Models are in disagreement with who will get the heaviest rain but some areas could see 20-30mm.
5-15mm of rain for the Capital Rgn looks like a reasonable estimate at this point.
That disturbance slides out of the province Friday and temperatures bounce back into the mid20s for the August long weekend.
Highs should be in the 23-26 range Sat/Sun/Mon.
By Thursday, I'll have a better idea of how likely the showers/TStorms in Sunday's forecast are. Some models are also adding in a risk of a late-day shower/tstorm for Monday.
I'm leaving that out of the forecast for now. I think if we're going to get some precip this long wknd, it'll be either overnight Saturday night into early Sunday morning or midday Sunday.
Forecast looks like this:
Today - Sunny morning, Mix of sun & cloud this afternoon.
Wed - Increasing cloud. Risk of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
Thu - Mostly cloudy with showers.
Fri - Clearing.
Sat - Partly cloudy.
Sun - Mix of sun & cloud. 30% chance of shower/TStorm.
Mon - Mix of sun & cloud.