'Alberta is very trade exposed': Calgary Chamber of Commerce looks at potential U.S. election impact on Alberta

Vice-President of Policy and External Affairs for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce Ruhee Ismail-Teja discusses the U.S. presidential debate, and how the upcoming election may impact Alberta.

 This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Michael Higgins: The U.S. presidential contenders faced one another for the first time, squaring off in a contentious debate offering two very different versions of America.

It’s an election drawing a lot of attention north of the border, especially with the business community here in Alberta.

Joining us now is Ruhee Ismail-Teja, vice-president of policy and external affairs for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

Last night’s debate certainly featured some tense clashes. How much of a read did you get on where either candidate or party is headed on economic policy?

Ruhee Ismail-Teja: It was certainly an interesting debate and a lot to unpack but limited on how much policy was actually discussed.

We heard quite a few hints to a policy, and (Republican candidate Donald) Trump referred to having a “concept of a plan.” But what a lot of Canadians are looking at is just what that will mean for us north of the border — and there was very little conversation about trade, about tariffs.

A lot of the policy that was actually discussed was very much focused on domestic issues. So I think Canadians are still leaving the debate with a lot of questions about what exactly it'll mean for our relationship with the U.S.

MH: From a business community perspective, how would you describe the current Canada-U.S. relationship, and what hangs in the balance with this election?

RIT: One of the things that we've looked at is the number of people who are paying attention to the election. So we found that about three quarters of Albertans are actually looking at the election south of the border and thinking about what it means for Canada, and part of that relates to the protectionism agenda that came forward from both candidates.

We know that Trump has talked lots about bringing forward tariffs of up to 10 per cent, maybe more, across anything that's imported into the U.S.; and that (Democrat candidate Kamala) Harris has actually opposed CUSMA (the Canada-United States-Mexico free-trade agreement) in the past based on not having strong enough labor and environmental protections.

So a lot has yet to unfold to understand exactly where each candidate stands and what exactly the impacts would be on the Canadian economy, knowing so much trade happens between our two countries.

MH: Having said that, what is the potential for worsening relations – especially around that scary word of 'protectionism?'

RIT: There's a lot that the Canadian government is going to have to focus on.

Some of that is related to supply chains and infrastructure and ensuring that we are a great trading partner for the U.S. A lot of it is around thinking about how we align our agenda with some of what the U.S. is working on.

In many cases, from critical minerals to geopolitical context and more broadly, there's a lot of overlap — it may look similar in some cases, depending on the candidate, and very different in others.

MH: Are the implications for our province different than for the whole of Canada? What are you watching for in terms of those implications for Alberta?

RIT: Alberta is very trade exposed, so we anticipate that Albertans are paying a disproportionate amount of attention to the election in the U.S.

A lot of the issues that are cross-border relate to energy, relate to agriculture, where we have a lot of economic activity. In Alberta, there's obviously also manufacturing and auto, which is across the country.

But interestingly, small business, which is disproportionately high in Alberta, is also impacted quite a bit by cross-border relations. Forty-per-cent of Canada's exports to the U.S. are actually from small businesses.

So there's a lot that Alberta businesses stand to gain or lose based on the outcome of this election.

MH: Of late, a number of Alberta cabinet ministers and MLAs have been venturing south of the border to spread the Alberta narrative.

What is the Calgary Chamber of Commerce looking for, strategically, around government collaboration?

RIT: We know we need an all-hands-on-deck approach to the U.S., and we think about a Team Canada approach.

So how do we have all levels of government work together to advance 'buy North America,' rather than a 'buy America' strategy, and ensure that we are actually working together to talk about the importance of Canada to the U.S. economy as well?

We need to start working with folks south of the border — who will be in critical decision making positions — to understand the importance of that relationship, and that it is actually mutually beneficial for both of our economies.

MH: To your point earlier, there wasn’t a whole lot of tangible policy discussion through the debate last night.

As an advocate for the business community, what are you watching for now in the remaining weeks of the presidential election?

RIT: We know with two-ish months shy of the election, there's still a lot of time for candidates to share their platforms and there will be several announcements.

We also know that things will change over the next several years, so we'll be looking for more clarity.

We know certainty is critical for investment and for the business community, so the more we have a sense of where the election is headed and the policies that will come forward as a result, the better.

At the same time, Canada needs to make sure that we're well prepared for whatever comes — not only in the next few months, but in the four years ahead.

MH: One last question for you: Are you hoping for a follow up debate between Trump and Harris, or are you able to glean enough from the campaign trail to navigate the road forward?

RIT: The more debates the better!

The more informed voting Americans can be, the better. And we know that Canadians are certainly keeping an eye on what’s happening in the U.S.

So I say grab your popcorn.