Alberta's Smith disappointed federal pension plan report offers no estimate of share

Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner delivers the 2024 budget in Edmonton, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson)

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says the province has heard back from Canada’s chief actuary on its bid to leave the Canada Pension Plan but says there's no estimate on how much the province should get.

The province has been waiting for months for the review and a figure.

Smith said Thursday her government will follow up to get clarity on the next steps following an expected federal cabinet shuffle.

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"We're a bit disappointed, because we were under the impression that the chief actuary was hiring three different analysts to look at the legislation, to be able to get three very precise ways of looking at this issue, so that we had a precise number," Smith said at an unrelated news conference in Calgary.

"Once things stabilize a bit in Ottawa, I'll be asking my finance minister to follow up."

Earlier Thursday, Justin Brattinga, press secretary to Finance Minister Nate Horner, said the report from the chief actuary included an interpretation of the legislation, but no number or even formula for calculating a number.

"We are still analyzing the report and will have more to say at a later date. We would not consider moving forward with a referendum on the issue until after we have a firm number to provide Albertans,” said Brattinga.

The federal Finance Department, in a statement, said that in November all provinces and territories were sent the report detailing the Chief Actuary's "interpretation of the asset transfer provisions in the CPP legislation if a province were to exit the plan."

The department did not address the estimate issue, but said, "Discussions will take place between the Government of Canada and provinces and territories over the coming weeks regarding the report and possible next steps."

The pension plan issue took off in Alberta after Smith’s United Conservative Party government won the 2023 provincial election.

Her government estimates Albertans deserve $334 billion — more than half the national retirement plan, while the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has pegged it closer to $100 billion.

Smith has said she wants to see what the federal estimate is, then put it to Albertans to see if there's appetite for a referendum.

The premier told The Canadian Press in a year-end interview earlier this month that getting a firm number "does matter."

"If it is an amount that doesn't allow for us to significantly reduce premiums or give a rebate to existing pensioners, then Albertans might decide it isn't worth it," Smith said.

"If it allows for us to do both — increase the amount that pensioners can get as well as reduce contributions significantly — they might decide otherwise."

Smith has argued Albertans are getting a raw deal under the national plan by putting in far more than they receive.

But she's been swimming against the stream of public opinion.

Last year, her government put public consultations into leaving the CPP on hold amid demands they revolve around an agreed-upon number.

The government's own Fair Deal panel found in 2020 that only 42 per cent of those polled thought an Alberta pension plan could improve the province's place in the federation.

Nevertheless, it has remained on the wish list of many of Smith's grassroots party members, who continued to push the premier this summer to take swift action.

Some of the Alberta government's public survey data on the issue remains tightly guarded.

The Edmonton Journal reported this week that Alberta's privacy commissioner has opened up two investigations after the newspaper's efforts to obtain the public's responses through freedom of information requests were stymied.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 19, 2024.