EDMONTON -- No significant change to the weather pattern today. Cloudy, some flurries and temperatures well below average in Edmonton with a high near -11. Areas to the east and northeast will continue to deal with the coldest air in the province as daytime highs get to the -15 to -20 range in the Bonnyville to Lloydminster regions. Further north, temperatures will be stuck in the -20s (again) in Fort McMurray.

Further west, milder conditions prevail as Jasper gets close to zero and the Grande Prairie area should get to single digits.

Friday – similar temperature setup. Saturday – a bit milder for Edmonton. Sunday – cold air drops back in.

Often, these cold “blobs” hover in place and then suddenly break. It’s not usually a gradual shift out. Right now, we’re trying to figure out when that break will happen. And to be completely honest... I don’t have much confidence in the model output for next week.

COULD we get near zero by early next week? Yep. In fact, the GDPS and GFS both suggest that.

However, the GEM ensemble keeps us considerably cooler and closer to the -8 range by Tuesday.

Here’s the problem. Ensembles are great for longer-range pattern forecasting except when you’re trying to pick out major swings. Is that what we’re seeing here? Time will tell.

Until then... don’t place a lot of stock in anyone’s forecast beyond Saturday.​