Delta variant poses 4th-wave risk without linking reopening to second doses: docs
Alberta's plan for a great summer could give way to a not-so-great fall, experts are warning, because of the fast-growing delta COVID-19 variant.
The strain, which was first found in India, is thought to be up to twice as transmissible as the alpha variant first found in the United Kingdom, according to early evidence. The former is behind a sharp spike in cases in parts of the U.K., even as other strains drop.
Studies there show one shot of vaccine – on which Alberta's reopening plan is founded – offers less protection.
"The emerging evidence is showing that one shot, although offers good protection, is not as strong against some of these variants," infectious diseases expert Dr. Craig Jenne told CTV News Edmonton, pointing out variants are Alberta's most dominant strains.
According to Alberta Health, a first dose of an mRNA vaccine, like the Pfizer and Moderna products, offers 73 per cent protection against the alpha variant. That immunity is boosted to 91 per cent with a second dose.
A first shot of those vaccines is also 75 per cent effective, and a second shot 89 per cent effective, against the gamma variant, first found in Brazil.
But against the delta strain, one dose only offers 33 per cent protection, and two doses 88 per cent protection.
- Delta variant heightens urgency for second doses to stop spread, scientists say
- WHO now using Greek alphabet for coronavirus variant names
"What’s happening in the United Kingdom at the moment is they’re seeing very rapid spread of this delta variant and they had adopted a very similar approach to Canada in emphasizing to everyone to get their first vaccine," Dr. Noel Gibney explained. "But we're moving relatively slowly on the second vaccines, although they are slightly ahead of Canada."
He co-chairs the pandemic planning committee of the Edmonton Medical Zone Staff Association and says the province is at risk of a fourth wave in the fall without higher second-dose rates or other protective measures.
"It seems kind of strange to be able to give that forecast so far ahead but that was very much the case with the U.K. variant where it was apparent in mid-February we were going to be in trouble in April," Gibney said. "With that kind of warning, we do have the opportunity to make sure that we can stave this off."
PANDEMIC NOT OVER: DOCTOR
According to the latest data, Alberta has identified 126 cases of the variant – but there could be more because not all positive cases were tested for variants of concern during the third wave.
"The problem with the current reopening is … approximately 40 per cent of the population – so the 30 per cent who are not vaccinated as well as those 12 and under – do not have protection. So there is a risk that the virus will transmit in that part of the community," Jenne told CTV News Edmonton.
The province could move to Stage 2 as soon as June 10, seeing as it has already met the threshold of having 60 per cent of the eligible population vaccinated and fewer than 500 hospitalizations.
Stage 3 will start at a minimum of two weeks later, once 70 per cent of the eligible population has had one dose. Almost all restrictions will be dropped then, and the province plans on allowing big events such as the Calgary Stampede to run.
- Alberta expected to enter Stage 2 of reopening this week: What will change?
- 'Truly near the end': Alberta announces 3-stage reopening plan linked to vaccinations, hospitalizations
"Anyone who thinks that it’s over just because we’ve had 60 to 70 per cent of our population vaccinated with one shot is mistaken," Gibney said.
Premier Jason Kenney has acknowledged a first dose of vaccine doesn't give full protection, but has said he expects all Albertans who were given a second dose to be fully immunized by the end of the summer.
Currently, anyone vaccinated in March can book their second dose. In one week, Albertans who were vaccinated in April can book for a second dose.
Two shots of AstraZeneca is considered 66 per cent effective against the delta variant, Gibney said, "way more effective" than any of Alberta's flu shots.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Bodies found by U.S. authorities searching for missing B.C. kayakers
United States authorities who have been searching for a pair of missing kayakers from British Columbia since the weekend have recovered two bodies in the nearby San Juan Islands of Washington state.
Amid concerns over 'collateral damage' Trudeau, Freeland defend capital gains tax change
Facing pushback from physicians and businesspeople over the coming increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his deputy Chrystia Freeland are standing by their plan to target Canada's highest earners.
'It's discriminatory': Individuals refused entry to Ontario legislature for wearing keffiyeh
Individuals being barred from entering Ontario’s legislature while wearing a keffiyeh say the garment is part of their cultural identity— and the only ones making it political are the politicians banning it.
Tom Mulcair: Park littered with trash after 'pilot project' is perfect symbol of Trudeau governance
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
Saskatchewan households will continue to receive carbon tax rebate: Trudeau
Households in Saskatchewan will continue to receive Canada Carbon Rebate payments, despite the province refusing to remit the federal carbon price on natural gas, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday.
'It's just so hard to let it go': Umar Zameer still haunted by death of Toronto police officer
'We hoped for this day, but we were scared that it would not never ever come because it took so long.' That’s what Umar Zameer, the man recently acquitted in the death of a Toronto police officer, told CTV News Toronto in a sit-down interview on Tuesday.
Senate expenses climbed to $7.2 million in 2023, up nearly 30%
Senators in Canada claimed $7.2 million in expenses in 2023, a nearly 30 per cent increase over the previous year.
Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko won't play in Game 2
The Vancouver Canucks will be without all-star goalie Thatcher Demko when they face the Nashville Predators in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series.
Pedestrian, baby injured after stroller struck and dragged by vehicle in Squamish, B.C.
Police say a baby and a pedestrian suffered non-life-threatening injuries after a vehicle struck a baby stroller and dragged it for two blocks before stopping in Squamish, B.C.