Josh Classen's forecast: Cold air returns and stays for the weekend
The January warm stretch is over and a new cold spell starts today.
Temperatures will be tumbling through the day across the province. So, it'll be colder this afternoon than it is this morning.
In Edmonton, we'll drop to the -10 C range by this afternoon. But, we'll drop even further and end up in the -20 C range by Saturday morning.
Daytime highs both Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the minus teens.
Wind chill becomes a factor again today. It won't be as gusty as Thursday, but we'll have 10-20 km/h wind through much of the day in Edmonton.
That means wind chills near -10 C this morning and wind chills in the minus teens this afternoon.
The wind gets stronger again Saturday (gusty midday and in the afternoon). Wind chills will likely be in the -30 C range Saturday morning and around -25 C in the afternoon.
Sunday's shaping up to be less windy, but still cold.
No significant snowfall expected in the Edmonton region. We'll see some occasional flurries or pockets of light snow in the area today and early this evening.
The city and most surrounding areas probably end up with 1 to 3 cm by late tonight.
There's some uncertainty with the longer-range temperature outlook.
I think we're probably out of the coldest air by Monday as some milder air presses in from the west and shoves the arctic air eastwards.
But, that battle between the warmer and colder airmasses could honestly go either way.
The latest runs of the Canadian models are running cooler than yesterday for Monday/Tuesday, but showing a big warm-up Wednesday followed by a return to colder temperatures Thursday/Friday.
The GFS is much warmer for Monday/Tuesday...but doesn't indicate a big Wednesday warm-up OR a Thursday/Friday cooldown.
In fact...there's about 15 degrees difference in the daytime high output between the GDPS and the GFS for next Friday.
Bottom line: Don't take next week's forecast to the bank just yet. We'll see some cold conditions this weekend and then some moderation to temperatures next week.
Whether that means a couple days near 0 C, -5 C, or -10 C (and exactly which days are the mildest) remains to be seen.
Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today - Cloudy with some occasional flurries or pockets of light snow.
Wind: NE 20 this morning and N 10-15 km/h this afternoon.
Wind chill near -10 this morning and in the minus teens this afternoon.
Temperature falling through the day.
Noon: -6 (wind chill near -13)
5pm: -10 (wind chill near -17)
Tonight - Cloudy with a 40% chance of flurries early in the evening. Some clearing overnight.
9pm: -13 (wind chill near -20)
Saturday - Mix of sun & cloud. Breezy.
Wind: 10-20 km/h in the morning and then 20 gusting to 40 km/h midday & through the afternoon.
Morning Low: -20 (wind chill near -30)
Afternoon High: -15 (wind chill near -24)
Sunday - Partly cloudy.
Morning Low: -20
Afternoon High: -14
Monday - Mostly cloudy.
Morning Low: -19
Afternoon High: -8
Tuesday - Cloudy. 30% chance of flurries.
Morning Low: -15
Afternoon High: -10
Wednesday - Cloudy with a 30% chance of flurries.
Morning Low: -14
Afternoon High: -7
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