Josh Classen's forecast: Enjoy today and tomorrow. The long-range forecast is 'bumpy'

Temperatures will climb into the upper teens in Edmonton this afternoon.

Clouds this morning will break a bit and allow some sun through later in the day.

Wind stays light and there's just a slight risk of an isolated shower this afternoon. But, most of the Edmonton region should stay dry.

All in all, a great early-May day and not at all representative of what's coming our way this weekend and early next week.

 

We'll get a degree or two warmer on Thursday afternoon with a high right around 20 C.

But, remember the last time it hit 20 C this spring?

We got to 23 C on April 8 and then temperatures plummeted for the following week.

Looks like history may repeat itself (although, we won't get AS cold as April).

 

Precipitation remains a big uncertainty for Friday-Monday.

Showers are looking rather likely on Friday. Whether or not it's a full day of rainy weather remains to be seen.

At this point, it's probably just cloudy with some occasional showers.

 

The GFS model stalls the low-pressure system over eastern Alberta and flips the rain over to snow for Edmonton and north-central Alberta on Saturday-Monday (with several centimetres of accumulation).

That model has the entire northern third of the province getting snow this weekend.

The GDPS moves the low-pressure system out much earlier, but then brings in a new system from the southeast Sunday/Monday.

This scenario means northern Alberta doesn't get snow this weekend. BUT...southern, central and eastern Alberta DO get snow Sunday night and Monday.

(Again, accumulation is possible with the bulk of it projected to fall Sunday night into early Monday morning).

 

We're not sure which of those two scenarios will play out.

However, I AM confident that it's going to get a LOT cooler and we'll probably see at least SOME snow in Edmonton by Monday.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton:

 

Today - Mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon.

Slight risk of an isolated shower late this afternoon.

High: 18

 

Tonight - Cloudy periods.

9pm: 12

 

Thursday - Mix of sun & cloud. 60% chance of evening showers.

Morning Low: 7

Afternoon High: 20

 

Friday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Morning Low: 5

Afternoon High: 15

 

Saturday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers or rain starting late in the day.

Morning Low: 5

Afternoon High: 12

 

Sunday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of rain. Windy.

 

 

Morning Low: 3

Afternoon High: 8

 

60% chance of rain and/or snow in the evening and overnight.

 

Monday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of rain and/or snow. Windy.

Morning Low: 0

Afternoon High: 6