Josh Classen's forecast: Heat wave rolls on, with a smoke risk this weekend

A heat warning remains in effect for Edmonton and almost all of Alberta. For most of central and northern Alberta, the heat wave will last into early next week.

Temperatures in Edmonton aren't expected to be back close to average until the mid to latter part of next week. Afternoon highs might not be back in the 20s until Wednesday or Thursday (July 24/25).

The city hit a record-setting high of 34.0 C on Wednesday. That beat the previous July 17 record of 33.9 from 1920.

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We'll get to the 34/35 degree range Thursday afternoon. The record for July 18 is 34.4 set in 1941.

Thunderstorms will develop in the foothills once again this afternoon. Those storms probably won't travel too far east, although the Red Deer region could see some action.

Elsewhere, there's plenty of energy for storms to develop...it's just a matter of whether or not they'll be able to break through the cap generated by the warmer air aloft.

ECCC forecasters with the Storm Prediction Centre have east-central AB as the most likely region for that to happen.

I'm getting more and more concerned about the potential for wildfire smoke to make it's way into the Edmonton region this weekend.

The modelling continues to show smoke encroaching on the city from both the fires in NE Alberta and the BC fires.

It remains to be seen just how thick that smoke will be. But, I think it's LIKELY that we'll at least notice some hazy conditions and the smell of smoke by Saturday.

We'll see how that smoke affects the forecast highs for the back half of the heat wave. If it's thick enough, if would probably keep us at least a couple degrees cooler.

I still think we'd at least get to 30 for highs, just maybe not the mid 30s. But, we'll see.

Through the next five to seven days, temperatures across much of Alberta will reach the low to mid 30s for afternoon highs.

Morning lows will be in the 15 to 20 degree range.

For Edmonton, the morning lows will be even warmer. We'll get lows in the 19 to 22 degree range.

So, it's not just the daytime heat that's an issue with this heat wave. We're not getting any relief overnight/morning AND it will end up being one of, if not THE, longest-duration heat waves on record.

Today is the third of what'll likely be seven to nine consecutive days above 30 degrees.

Here are the longest stretches of consecutive days above 30.0 degrees in Edmonton:

• 2021 - 7 days
• 1961 - 6 days
• 1941 - 5 days

*10 other years have had 4-day stretches

We're on pace for a record-setting 8 straight days of 30+ heat (possibly 9).

As mentioned, the only thing that MIGHT become an issue is wildfire smoke. But, areas currently dealing with smoke are still getting to the 30s, so I think it's likely we'll do the same here in Edmonton.

ONE LAST THING:

We'll be closer to record highs than average highs right through the duration of the heat wave.

Here are the best chances for new record highs:

• Friday, July 19
• Forecast: 35
• Record: 33.3 - 1979

Sunday, July 21

Forecast: 35

Record: 32.8 - 1945

 

Monday, July 22

Forecast: 36

Record: 34.5 - 2006

 

Tuesday, July 23

Forecast: 35

Record: 33.4 - 2006

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Mainly sunny.

RECORD: 34.4 - 1941

High: 34 **humidex near 37 this afternoon

 

Tonight - A few clouds in the evening. Clear overnight.

9pm: 29

 

Friday - Mainly sunny. 30% chance of an evening thunderstorm.

RECORD: 33.3 - 1979

Morning Low: 21

Afternoon High: 35

 

Saturday - Mainly sunny. Chance of wildfire smoke in the area.

RECORD: 33.9 - 1936

Morning Low: 21

Afternoon High: 33

 

Sunday - Mainly sunny. Chance of wildfire smoke in the area.

RECORD: 32.8 - 1945

Morning Low: 22

Afternoon High: 35

 

Monday - Mainly sunny.

RECORD: 34.5 - 2006

Morning Low: 22

Afternoon High: 36

 

Tuesday - Mainly sunny.

RECORD: 33.4 - 2006

Morning Low: 23

Afternoon High: 35