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Josh Classen's forecast: Mild again today, brief cooldown Wednesday

wxblog Nov. 21 2023

Cloudy and mild in the Edmonton area again today. There's some uncertainty with just HOW warm we'll get this afternoon.

Realistically, we could be anywhere between 5 C and 10 C for a high. I'm splitting the difference and going with a high of 7 C.

It'll depend on how quickly we get into the northwesterly flow behind the northern low-pressure system.

Areas south of Edmonton should easily get to around 10 C this afternoon.

We have some snow in northern Alberta this morning and it'll stay in the north through most of the day.

Behind the low pressure system moving across the north, we'll see some snow drop south through western Alberta late today and tonight.

It looks like the best chance of some precipitation in the Edmonton area comes late tonight or early Wednesday morning.

That could be flurries, a rain/snow mix or some showers depending on the timing.

Cooler air will drop in for Wednesday and we'll probably stay below 0 C through the day.

But, that probably doesn't last. Temperatures are expected to rebound for Thursday-Saturday.

Highs will likely be in the 1 to 5 C range for those three days.

Beyond Saturday, there's a bit more uncertainty with temperatures.

The GFS model has a cooldown for Sunday, while the GDPS modelling suggests the milder air lingers through into early next week.

Neither model output is suggesting a significant or sustained drop in temperature between now and the end of the month.

So, it seems reasonable to expect one or two "cool" days, but most (possibly all) of the rest of the month will probably be average or warmer than average.

As for snow, there's the slight risk tonight and early Wednesday...but that probably doesn't amount to much more than MAYBE a bit of minor accumulation (that won't last).

After tomorrow, the next chance looks to be Monday (which also doesn't appear to be a significant snowfall at this point).

So, the last time we made it to Nov. 21 with snow on the ground was 2015 (snow arrived Nov. 24 that year).

The last time Edmonton got to the end of November without snow on the ground was 2008.

It looks like we'll take a run that status this year.


Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Cloudy with a few sunny breaks.

High: 7


Tonight - Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain/snow mix or showers late this evening or overnight.

9pm: 2


Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of flurries or light snow in the afternoon & evening.

Morning Low: -5

Afternoon High: -2


Thursday - Mostly cloudy in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon.

Morning Low: -6

Afternoon High: 1


Friday - Mainly sunny.

Morning Low: -6

Afternoon High: 3


Saturday - Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: -4

Afternoon High: 4


Sunday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: -5

Afternoon High: 3 Top Stories

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