Josh Classen's forecast: Mixed precipitation and some snow pushing through tonight
It's setting up to be a snowy couple of days in parts of western and southwestern Alberta.
For Edmonton and area, there's still a fairly high degree of uncertainty regarding the precipitation.
I think it's very likely that we'll get at least SOME precipitation, but the end result (as far as snow accumulation) remains a bit of an unknown.
None of this starts (in Edmonton) until this evening, so tune in to CTV News Edmonton tonight at 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. and I'll have the latest.
For now, here's what I'm thinking:
Light rain turning over to wet snow is likely mid-to-late evening, with a risk of some freezing rain before the flip to snow.
Wet snow overnight and early Thursday morning could produce 1 to 4 cm of accumulation across the region, ending by midday.
So, I DO think it's likely that there's a bit more snowcover out there by lunchtime Thursday.
BUT...we're out on the northern edge of this system, so there could be a wide range in accumulation across the region.
AND...there's always the chance this stays completely south of the city and we get nothing (that looks fairly unlikely at this point, though).
Elsewhere:
A snowfall warning is in effect for Banff and area: at least 15 cm expected by early Thursday (possibly over 20 cm in some spots).
A winter storm warning is in effect for the Icefields Parkway: 25 to 30 cm of snow, especially further south near Lake Louise.
A winter storm watch is in effect for the southwest corner of Alberta (this will likely be upgraded later today).
Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasters with the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre are also discussing the possibility of extending some of those alerts, especially into the Nordegg/Rocky Mountain House regions.
Outside of the mountains and foothills, the heaviest precipitation will likely fall from around Red Deer east towards the Lloydminster/Coronation areas.
Rain starts this afternoon, turns over to mixed precipitation (with a risk of freezing rain) this evening and then heavy, wet snow overnight.
About 5 to 10 cm of accumulation is likely for most of that region, with some spots getting upwards of 15 cm by Thursday afternoon.
Daytime highs slip below 0 C for Friday/Saturday (not COLD...but back closer to average).
However, the long range outlook is now trending warmer with the chance of an upper ridge moving in next week.
So, I'm not anticipating a "cold spell" between now and around Dec. 16.
AND...the overall trend actually looks fairly mild through to Dec. 21 (a couple chilly days here and there, but no prolonged cold spell).
One last thing: After the chance of snow overnight/early Thursday...there isn't much/any snow in the forecast through the middle of the month.
Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today - Increasing cloud this morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon.
High: 3
Tonight - Cloudy. Rain/snow mix with a risk of freezing rain mid-evening, turning to snow overnight.
9pm: -1
Thursday - Morning snow, ending midday. Possible accumulation: 1 to 4 cm total.
Sunny breaks in the afternoon.
Morning Low: -3
Afternoon High: 0
Friday - Partly cloudy.
Morning Low: -12
Afternoon High: -2
Saturday - Mix of sun & cloud.
Morning Low: -12
Afternoon High: -4
Sunday - Mostly cloudy.
Morning Low: -12
Afternoon High: 0
Monday - Partly cloudy.
Morning Low: -8
Afternoon High: -3