Josh Classen's forecast: Smoke lingers for a few more days

Wildfire smoke that blew into the Edmonton area from the northwest on Thursday looks like it could be stuck in the Edmonton area through the weekend.

That's a bit of a change from what I was thinking yesterday.

The modelling indicated the thickest smoke moving east of Edmonton overnight and this morning, but that just hasn't happened.

Air quality remains extremely bad in the Edmonton region as a bit of an inversion and low wind has trapped that smoke in place (it's also why we're dealing with the fog early this morning).

Smoke HAS moved into eastern and southeastern Alberta, it just hasn't cleared out of the Edmonton region.

Before going any further...let me stress: smoke forecasting is VERY DIFFICULT (for a wide number of reasons), especially over timeframes longer than a day or two.

So...there's definitely some uncertainty with this outlook, but here goes:

With a more easterly/southeasterly wind direction in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere...it looks unlikely that the smoke will move out today (the wind direction actually doesn't change much between now and the end of Saturday).

Given the fact that there's a chance of a shower or thunderstorm tonight and some scattered showers possible Friday, there IS a chance that precipitation could "wash out" some of the smoke before the weekend, especially since this seems to mostly be smoke near the surface.

(If it was high-level smoke, precipitation can sometimes mix that down to the lower levels and increase surface-based smoke.)

I don't think there'll be enough rain to completely clear the air though...so we should expect at least SOME smoke in the Edmonton region Friday.

The Air Quality Health Index MIGHT improve slightly on Friday, but then the modelling has another blast of thicker smoke pushing in from the east on Saturday.

Sunday's a bit more uncertain. However, smoke looks like it'll PROBABLY still be lingering in the Edmonton region.

Bottom line: While the AQHI readings may vary a bit, we should expect "high to very high risk" conditions for most, if not all, of the next few days. And, any improvement likely doesn't get us any better than a "moderate to high risk."

As for the shower/thunderstorm risk:

Thunderstorms (possibly severe) are very likely in western Alberta today. Gusty wind and large hail are the main threats.

In the Slave Lake/Whitecourt/Edson/Drayton Valley regions, there's also the threat of some isolated downpours to go along with the wind and hail.

Edmonton and area has a slight risk of seeing a shower or thunderstorm roll through the region late this evening/overnight.

Friday's showers and thunderstorms will also be mainly focused on western (and southern) Alberta. There's a good chance we'll see some occasional scattered showers in the Edmonton area, but it doesn't look like any significant moisture.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Smoky & foggy this morning. Fog easing mid-morning, but smoke lingers.

AQHI: High to Very High risk

High: 24

 

Tonight - 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Smoky/hazy.

AQHI: High to Very High risk

9pm: 20

 

Friday - Mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers. Smoky/hazy.

AQHI: High risk to Very High risk.

Morning Low: 14

Afternoon High: 22

 

Saturday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers, especially later in the day.

Smoky. AQHI: High risk to Very High risk.

Morning Low: 13

Afternoon High: 22

 

Sunday - Mostly cloudy.

Morning Low: 13

Afternoon High: 22

 

Monday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: 14

Afternoon High: 25

 

Tuesday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: 14

Afternoon High: 26