Josh Classen's forecast: Smoke moves in as heat wave rolls on

A heat warning remains in effect for Edmonton and almost all of Alberta. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 30s across most of the province, again.

We'll get back to that in a moment...but first, let's talk smoke.

The ECCC smoke modelling continues to point toward wildfire smoke from both northern Alberta (especially the NE) and B.C. spreading across much of Alberta in the coming days.

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Air quality readings in the Edmonton area are in the "moderate risk" range of the Air Quality Health Index this morning and we have hazy skies hanging over the city.

We're expecting the see AQHI readings of 4-6 (moderate) for the rest of today and probably through the weekend.

Given the number of fires burning in Alberta and B.C., it seemed like it was just a matter of time before smoke finally made an appearance. AND...now it's here.

Intensity of the smoky/hazy conditions will be variable in the coming days.

How that smoke will impact the forecast highs for the next few days remains to be seen. Areas in NE Alberta that have been dealing with wildfire smoke for a while are still getting into the 30s the past few days.

We'll probably end up a degree or two "cooler" than we would've been had there been no haze.

But, that still leaves us with afternoon highs in the 30s.

IN FACT...this will be Edmonton's fourth consecutive days above 30 C and likely the third consecutive day with a record-setting afternoon high.

The July 19 record high is 33.3 C in 1979. We're expecting to hit 34 or 35 C later today.

Tuesday, July 17 hit 34.0 - that edged out the previous record of 33.9 from 1920.

Wednesday, July 18 hit 35.3 - that beat the previous record of 34.4 from 1941.

There's a very good chance we'll set more daily record highs before the end of the heat wave.

In fact, it's possible we could see SEVEN CONSECUTIVE record-setting days. I think one or two of the following days will probably come up just short of a record.

But...seven straight records is possible...and that's almost unbelievable.

 

Friday, July 19

Forecast: 34

Record: 33.3 - 1979

 

Saturday, July 20

Forecast: 34

Record: 33.9 - 1936

 

Sunday, July 21

Forecast: 35

Record: 32.8 - 1945

 

Monday, July 22

Forecast: 36

Record: 34.5 - 2006

 

Tuesday, July 23

Forecast: 36

Record: 33.4 - 2006

 

Temperatures will likely drop out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

That means we're ALSO in a potentially record-setting stretch of days above 30 C.

Here are the longest stretches of consecutive days above 30.0 degrees in Edmonton:

• 2021 - 7 days
• 1961 - 6 days
• 1941 - 5 days

*10 other years have had 4-day stretches

 

We're on pace for a record-setting 8 straight days of 30+ heat (possibly 9).

 

Thunderstorm Risk:

The best chance for thunderstorms is in the Peace Country and down through the foothills this afternoon/evening. Some of those storms will track east through the evening. But, it's unlikely that they'll get to Edmonton.

NE Alberta has the best chance for late-day storms on Saturday. Again, most (probably all) of those will miss the Edmonton region.

That said - it's not a "zero chance" for the city and surrounding area. So...I'm putting a slight risk into the forecast.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

 

Today - Sunny & hazy.

RECORD: 33.3 - 1979

High: 34 **humidex near 37 this afternoon

 

Tonight - A few clouds & a slight risk of a thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight (but still hazy)

9pm: 29

 

Saturday - Sunny & hazy. Slight risk of an evening thunderstorm.

RECORD: 33.9 - 1936

Morning Low: 21

Afternoon High: 34

 

Sunday - Sunny & hazy.

RECORD: 32.8 - 1945

Morning Low: 22

Afternoon High: 35

 

Monday - Mainly sunny. (smoke uncertain)

RECORD: 34.5 - 2006

Morning Low: 22

Afternoon High: 36

 

Tuesday - Mainly sunny. (smoke uncertain)

RECORD: 33.4 - 2006

Morning Low: 23

Afternoon High: 35

 

Wednesday - Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a late-day thunderstorm.

Morning Low: 20

Afternoon High: 29