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Josh Classen's forecast: Some showers and a cooling trend

wxblog Sept. 28 2023

A bit of sunshine in the Edmonton area this morning, giving way to afternoon clouds.

Scattered showers will develop over central and north-central Alberta this afternoon and that'll continue through the evening and overnight.

A few spots could see some steadier light rain, but most areas will just get some occasional showers.

Most of the precipitation should move south of the Edmonton area by Friday afternoon.

Another system pushes into southern Alberta on Saturday and then drives north through eastern Alberta Saturday night/Sunday.

I've added a slight risk of a late-day shower to the forecast for Edmonton Saturday. That said, it looks like most (probably all) of the rain will stay east of the city.

Temperatures are expected to hit 16 C or 17 C in Edmonton this afternoon. But, we'll stay below 15 C for highs Friday and Saturday. 

It looks like this will be the coolest back-to-back days since mid-June. There was a 14 C day early this month. But, we haven't had two consecutive days with a high below 15 C in a few months.

We should get a bit of a bump in temperature Sunday-Tuesday; back to the 15 to 18 C range for daytime highs as the upper trough weakens. starts to get interesting. There's been a big change to the long-range GFS model outlook.

The GDPS model continues to show cool air dropping in and some single-digit daytime highs toward the end of next week.

BUT...the GFS is now showing a WARM-UP (highs near 20!). That may just be one "garbage run" of the GFS and perhaps it'll revert back to a chilly outlook.

OR...maybe it's on to something that the GDPS isn't picking up on yet.

Bottom line: Don't gamble on next week's weather. I still think it's PROBABLY going to get cool. But, my confidence in that forecast is lower than it was yesterday.

As always...stay tuned and I'll keep you posted on how it all develops.


Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Partly cloudy in the morning. Increasing afternoon cloud.

60% chance of showers late this afternoon.

High: 17


Tonight - Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers overnight.

9pm: 10


Friday - Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.

Morning Low: 4

Afternoon High: 12


Saturday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of evening showers.

Morning Low: 4

Afternoon High: 13


Sunday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: 3

Afternoon High: 15


Monday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of late-day showers.

Morning Low: 5

Afternoon High: 17


Tuesday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: 6

Afternoon High: 15 Top Stories

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