Nanos Research polling shows Conservatives remain in driver's seat

Chief Data Scientist for Nanos Research, Nik Nanos, discusses the latest polling numbers showing the Conservative party maintaining a strong lead over the governing Liberals.

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Michael Higgins: It’s been quite the week of heightened tensions but has polling shifted much in the time since the NDP ripped up its agreement with the liberals and the lead up to the start of votes of nonconfidence?

Nik Nanos: It hasn't changed in one respect, and has changed or shifted a little bit in another. First of all, the Conservatives remain firmly in the driver's seat. They're at around 42 per cent, clearly in majority territory, 17 points ahead of the of the Liberals.

What we did see is a little bit of an uptick for the New Democrats after they ended their parliamentary arrangement with the Liberals.

I think that's kind of the worst case scenario for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals if the NDP start picking up steam because the Conservatives have a 17 point advantage, and if the Liberals and New Democrats split the vote, that's double trouble for the Liberals and a massive bonus for the Conservatives.

MH: Are Canadians tuned into the current level of chaos in the House of Commons? Are they tuning it out?

NN: I think it's kind of like a car crash, they're attracted and repelled at the same time. The termination of the car crash being the next federal election.

The thing is Canadians know that we will be going to the polls at one point or another and I think with the NDP pulling out of the parliamentary arrangement, and now the Bloc, they're talking to the Liberals in terms of old age security and being a little more generous on that front.

So there's lots of moving parts right now, everybody's jockeying, and we're, realistically in the House of Commons itself, at a boiling point between all of the parties.

Maybe they should just stand up and say they don't like each other, because they're saying everything but that.

MH: What is the appetite of Canadians for an early election and how might that correlate into the degree of support the Conservatives continue to enjoy?

NN: I think if you're if you're anyone that supports the Conservatives an election can't come fast enough for you. I think the same holds true probably for Bloc Quebecois supporters, little less so for the New Democrats and some of the other parties.

If you're supporting Pierre Poilievre you clearly want to have an election as soon as possible, so it's a bit divided on that front. But the reality is, even if we were to have an early election, it could be as early as November.

The parliamentary arrangement, when it was still in place, people were talking about Fall of 2025. When the parliamentary arrangement kind of was ended by the New Democrats, then it's kind of like the Budget of 2025. I think looking on in the House and the positioning, especially of the Bloc, we may see the Liberals perhaps even get defeated this Fall with a Fall election.

MH: If these non-confidence motions continue to be defeated could that have any impact on polling for either the Liberals or the Conservatives, given that it's Pierre Poilievre driving hard to bring down the government and trigger that early election?

NN: I don't think there's any downside for the Conservatives because they have to keep asserting and trying to pass a motion of non-confidence so that they can get the election. So no downside for the Conservatives. For the Liberals, if they can skirt away from that then it's good news for the Liberals because they survive a little longer.

For Pierre Poilievre, at least, he's got to be looking at what's happening like every day. It's going to be like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. Pierre Poilievre is going to wake up and go, ‘how about a non-confidence motion today?’

I think that's realistically what we're going to see from Pierre Poilievre. Hoping that on one of these occasions, Pierre Poilievre is successful at defeating the government and it triggers the election that obviously the Conservatives are really hot to fight right now.

MH: Does any of this change discussions behind closed doors around Liberal Party leadership and any momentum that may have been building ahead of MPs returning to the House?

NN: If the election was next fall, or even during the budget, there was room to have the Liberals to have a snap leadership but if we're talking about an election this Fall, there's no runway.

It means that Justin Trudeau, realistically, will be the candidate, unless the Liberals prorogue parliament, and Justin Trudeau steps down.

This sounds almost biblical from a political perspective, that all these things happen so that the Liberals can have a snap leadership and go into an election.

It's just going to be more difficult for the Liberals if they do want to change leaders to do that, especially with the pressure that's going to be happening in the House this fall.

MH: You're also out with fresh polling on an issue that’s undoubtedly of interest to Alberta, that being gauging public perceptions on the direction of energy policy decisions. What did you find? How does oil and gas factor into that?

NN: In the survey that we did with the University of Ottawa's Positive Energy Initiative a couple things really jumped out. First of all, Canadians give low scores to how we do on long-term energy policy, big surprise. They want less partisanship but also what's quite interesting is that when we talk about the future of oil and gas, the importance to the economy today, and the perceived importance of the oil and gas sector to the economy in the future, those numbers are still strong.

It's a majority of Canadians who still believe that the oil and gas sector will remain today, and in the future, an important part of our economy. I think a lot of this has to do with people worried about paying for the bills, making sure that there are jobs, and knowing that the energy sector is critical to the competitiveness of our economy.

MH: Is there a breakdown between whether it's political in nature that the decisions are made or that it comes from more of a scientific background?

NN: The polling does show that they'd like more of a non-partisan, let's set aside partisanship politics and focus more on experts, academics, and third parties that aren't as politically charged as some of those other stakeholders.

So maybe let's be practical, let's take a little bit of the politics out of our energy policy and focus on what Canadians think might be in the best interests of the country at large.