Poilievre's Conservatives still in majority territory: Nanos seat projections

Trend Line: Tories still in majority territory Host Michael Stittle and pollster Nik Nanos discuss how Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives are making significant gains across the country.

The Liberals’ promise of a temporary GST break for consumers, as well as $250 rebate cheques for some Canadians, in a gesture to ease affordability concerns over the holidays, hasn’t benefited Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his minority government when it comes to public support.

Nearly three weeks after the Liberals first announced their “tax break for all Canadians,” Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain in comfortable majority territory, according to latest ballot tracking by Nanos Research. It shows the Conservatives at 42 per cent nationally, while the Liberals and the NDP are within the margin of error of each other at 23 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.

The Liberals introduced their economic measures “thinking maybe it would change the numbers; however, the reality is that the Liberals have tried everything,” Nik Nanos, CTV News pollster and Nanos Research Chair said on the latest episode of Trend Line. “This is the latest thing and it’s obviously not working, and Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are just hammering away (at the Liberals) over and over again and probably just can’t wait for an election.”

Seat projections show Conservatives making gains

While the Conservatives have been comfortably in the driver’s seat for all of 2024 when it comes to popular support, Nanos’ monthly seat projections also show the party continuing to make significant gains across the country, including traditional Liberal strongholds in Ontario, British Columbia and the Atlantic region.

If an election were to be held today, those projections show Poilievre would become prime minister with a majority Conservative government.

In the regional maps below, Nanos highlighted specific ridings in each region where the more dramatic changes have occurred since the 2021 election. The comparison maps show results from the 2021 federal election on the left—with borders for the new electoral districts modelled—and on the right, the latest seat projections (the greyed-out and black ridings are considered too close to call or toss-ups).

Atlantic

Projections in Atlantic Canada show a number of ridings turning either blue (Conservative), becoming toss-ups or too close to call. This includes Newfoundland, where only the riding of St. John’s South -Mount Pearl on the eastern tip of the Avalon Peninsula (where Seamus O’Regan won with 56.2 per cent of the vote in 2021) would remain Liberal red if an election were held today.

“You can see the Conservatives basically in Atlantic Canada poised to pick up … a lot of seats right now if there were an election, with the Liberals really back on their heels compared to where they were in 2021,” Nanos said.

Quebec

In Quebec, Nanos highlighted the Greater Quebec City area, “which has always been good for the Conservatives.”

But projections show Conservatives branching out further, and with the Bloc also doing well, current Liberal ridings like Sherbrooke, Compton-Stanstead (Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau’s riding) and Brome-Missisquoi (Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge’s riding) are now either too close to call or would be a toss-ups if an election were held today.

Ontario

Things looks even more stark for the Liberals in vote-rich Ontario, home of traditionally red strongholds like the Greater Toronto Area, which are now increasingly turning blue or too close to call.

“It doesn’t matter where you cut it,” Nanos said. “You can see … Brampton, Mississauga as key battlegrounds with the Conservatives actually mounting a major challenge to the Liberals in those ridings.”

That also goes for Liberal ridings in southwestern Ontario around Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo, which Nanos says are now tilting towards the Conservatives.

Nanos said another riding to watch is Kingston and the Islands, which has consistently voted Liberal since 1988.

“It’s in play now, too,” Nanos said, adding that it’s “too close to call between the Liberals and Conservatives.”

“Some of these Liberal strongholds that have been in the Liberal column for a long period of time are basically now up for grabs.”

Nanos says part of the Liberals’ fortunes can be attributed to the NDP splitting the vote on the left, while the Conservatives eat into the Liberals on the other side.

“So the Conservatives have a double whammy, because the NPD splits the vote, plus the Conservatives have an advantage,” Nanos said, “which helps convert a lot of those seats in Ontario into the blue column.”

British Columbia

While there are no surprises in the Prairies, which Nanos said remains a “lock for the Conservatives,” things get interesting when we look further west.

While the British Columbia Interior has been reliably Conservative, the coast is NDP territory. In his latest projections, however, Nanos says the NDP are at risk of losing seats on the coast, as well as on Vancouver Island, where they’re in a fight now with the Conservatives.

“When we zoom into Vancouver … it’s just brutally bad for the Liberals,” he said. “In Vancouver, I think there’s only one riding that we think the Liberals are going to hold and that’s Surrey-Newton, that little red box.”

Projections show the Conservatives are picking up support in the southern part of Vancouver, while the NDP are doing better in the northern areas including Burnaby.

Nanos says it’s that vote split, where the NDP are competitive in a number of ridings and the Conservatives numbers are increasing, where it hurts the Liberals’ chances and increases the Conservatives’ fortunes.

While Nanos says anything could happen between now and the next election, the reality is that it’s “Poilievre’s to lose.”

“He basically has to not make a mistake and do nothing and ride, I’ll call it, ‘a blue wave of change,’” Nanos said. “That’s why … Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have to desperately hope that somehow Pierre Poilievre, or someone close to Pierre Poilievre, makes a mistake. But I don’t think Pierre Poilievre is going to make a mistake.”

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article or on YouTube. You can also listen to the episode in the podcast player below. Trend Line will return after the holidays in mid January.

Methodology

The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.