Josh Classen's forecast: Smoke moves in as heat wave rolls on
A heat warning remains in effect for Edmonton and almost all of Alberta. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 30s across most of the province, again.
We'll get back to that in a moment...but first, let's talk smoke.
The ECCC smoke modelling continues to point toward wildfire smoke from both northern Alberta (especially the NE) and B.C. spreading across much of Alberta in the coming days.
Air quality readings in the Edmonton area are in the "moderate risk" range of the Air Quality Health Index this morning and we have hazy skies hanging over the city.
We're expecting the see AQHI readings of 4-6 (moderate) for the rest of today and probably through the weekend.
Given the number of fires burning in Alberta and B.C., it seemed like it was just a matter of time before smoke finally made an appearance. AND...now it's here.
Intensity of the smoky/hazy conditions will be variable in the coming days.
How that smoke will impact the forecast highs for the next few days remains to be seen. Areas in NE Alberta that have been dealing with wildfire smoke for a while are still getting into the 30s the past few days.
We'll probably end up a degree or two "cooler" than we would've been had there been no haze.
But, that still leaves us with afternoon highs in the 30s.
IN FACT...this will be Edmonton's fourth consecutive days above 30 C and likely the third consecutive day with a record-setting afternoon high.
The July 19 record high is 33.3 C in 1979. We're expecting to hit 34 or 35 C later today.
Tuesday, July 17 hit 34.0 - that edged out the previous record of 33.9 from 1920.
Wednesday, July 18 hit 35.3 - that beat the previous record of 34.4 from 1941.
There's a very good chance we'll set more daily record highs before the end of the heat wave.
In fact, it's possible we could see SEVEN CONSECUTIVE record-setting days. I think one or two of the following days will probably come up just short of a record.
But...seven straight records is possible...and that's almost unbelievable.
Friday, July 19
Forecast: 34
Record: 33.3 - 1979
Saturday, July 20
Forecast: 34
Record: 33.9 - 1936
Sunday, July 21
Forecast: 35
Record: 32.8 - 1945
Monday, July 22
Forecast: 36
Record: 34.5 - 2006
Tuesday, July 23
Forecast: 36
Record: 33.4 - 2006
Temperatures will likely drop out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
That means we're ALSO in a potentially record-setting stretch of days above 30 C.
Here are the longest stretches of consecutive days above 30.0 degrees in Edmonton:
- 2021 - 7 days
- 1961 - 6 days
- 1941 - 5 days
*10 other years have had 4-day stretches
We're on pace for a record-setting 8 straight days of 30+ heat (possibly 9).
Thunderstorm Risk:
The best chance for thunderstorms is in the Peace Country and down through the foothills this afternoon/evening. Some of those storms will track east through the evening. But, it's unlikely that they'll get to Edmonton.
NE Alberta has the best chance for late-day storms on Saturday. Again, most (probably all) of those will miss the Edmonton region.
That said - it's not a "zero chance" for the city and surrounding area. So...I'm putting a slight risk into the forecast.
Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today - Sunny & hazy.
RECORD: 33.3 - 1979
High: 34 **humidex near 37 this afternoon
Tonight - A few clouds & a slight risk of a thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight (but still hazy)
9pm: 29
Saturday - Sunny & hazy. Slight risk of an evening thunderstorm.
RECORD: 33.9 - 1936
Morning Low: 21
Afternoon High: 34
Sunday - Sunny & hazy.
RECORD: 32.8 - 1945
Morning Low: 22
Afternoon High: 35
Monday - Mainly sunny. (smoke uncertain)
RECORD: 34.5 - 2006
Morning Low: 22
Afternoon High: 36
Tuesday - Mainly sunny. (smoke uncertain)
RECORD: 33.4 - 2006
Morning Low: 23
Afternoon High: 35
Wednesday - Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a late-day thunderstorm.
Morning Low: 20
Afternoon High: 29
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Canadian family stuck in Lebanon anxiously awaits flight options amid Israeli strikes
A Canadian man who is trapped in Lebanon with his family says they are anxiously waiting for seats on a flight out of the country, as a barrage of Israeli airstrikes continues.
Suspect in shooting of Toronto cop was out on bail
A 21-year-old man who was charged with attempted murder in the shooting of a Toronto police officer this week was out on bail at the time of the alleged offence, court documents obtained by CTV News Toronto show.
Scientists looked at images from space to see how fast Antarctica is turning green. Here's what they found
Parts of icy Antarctica are turning green with plant life at an alarming rate as the region is gripped by extreme heat events, according to new research, sparking concerns about the changing landscape on this vast continent.
DEVELOPING 2 dead after fire rips through historic building in Old Montreal
At least two people are dead and others are injured after a fire ripped through a century-old building near Montreal's City Hall, sources told Noovo Info.
Yazidi woman captured by ISIS rescued in Gaza after more than a decade in captivity
A 21-year-old Yazidi woman has been rescued from Gaza where she had been held captive by Hamas for years after being trafficked by ISIS.
A 6-year-old girl was kidnapped in Arkansas in 1995. Almost 30 years later, a suspect was identified
Nearly 30 years after a six-year-old girl disappeared in Western Arkansas, authorities have identified a suspect in her abduction through DNA evidence.
Dolphins 'smile' at each other when they play and to avoid misunderstanding, study finds
For humans, flashing a smile is an easy way to avoid misunderstanding. And, according to a new study, bottlenose dolphins may use a similar tactic while playing with each other.
Pit bulls in B.C. pet mauling tested positive for meth, cocaine, says city
Three pit bulls involved in a deadly attack on another dog last month in Kamloops, B.C., tested positive for methamphetamine and cocaine, and the city is going to court to have them put down.
Tax rebate: Canadians with low to modest incomes to receive payment on Friday
Canadians who are eligible for a GST/HST tax credit can expect their final payment of the year on Friday.