Josh Classen's forecast: Extreme cold alerts still in effect, but milder over weekend
Yes, temperatures will start to climb this weekend. But, it's still going to feel cold.
We'll get to those details in a moment. Today: sunshine, wind around 5-10 km/h and temperatures going from the mid -20s this morning to around -20 C this afternoon.
Wind won't be ridiculously strong, but enough to give us wind chill in the -30s this morning and around -27 this afternoon.
So, that puts us in a risk of frostbite in as little as 10-30 minutes.
Here are the thresholds:
- wind chill -28 to -39: 10-30 min
- wind chill -40 to -47: 5-10 min
- wind chill -48 to -54: 2-5 min
OK...looking ahead to the weekend:
Temperatures in the mid -20s Saturday morning, feeling like the -30s with wind chill.
We'll "warm" to -10 C in the afternoon, but the wind chill will be around -18.
Sunday starts around -13 C with a wind chill near -21.
Edmonton probably gets to around -8 C in the afternoon, but wind chill will have it feeling more like -15.
It's a catch-22.
The arctic air aloft shifts off to the east and some milder air moves into the upper levels (at least, into western and southern Alberta).
With a strong enough westerly wind, some of that milder air gets mixed down to the surface and raises the temperature.
BUT...because of the stronger wind, you get a wind chill making it feel five to 10 degrees colder than it reads on thermometers.
AND...actual temperatures drop once again Monday/Tuesday as the arctic air slides back in.
Looking LONG range: there's some milder air coming in for Wednesday/Thursday next week (maybe even up around -5 C).
But the latest Canadian model runs are indicating highs in the -10 C to -15 C range toward the end of next week. So, the mid-week "warming" may not be very sustained.
Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today - Sunny with a few clouds. Wind: 10 km/h
*** wind chill: around -33 in the morning. around -27 in the afternoon.
Tonight - A few clouds. Wind: 5-10 km/h
9pm: -22 ***wind chill near -27
Saturday - Sunny with a few afternoon clouds. Breezy.
Wind: 10-20 gusting to 30 km/h
Morning Low: -26 ***wind chill near -35
Afternoon High: -10 ***wind chill near -18
Sunday - Mix of sun & cloud. Breezy.
Wind: 15-20 gusting to 30 km/h
Morning Low: -13 ***wind chill near -21
Afternoon High: -8 ***wind chill near -15
Monday - Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of flurries.
Morning Low: -16
Afternoon High: -14
Tuesday - Mix of sun & cloud.
Morning Low: -23
Afternoon High: -19
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of flurries.
Morning Low: -15
Afternoon High: -7
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