Josh Classen's forecast: Near-record heat and another thunderstorm risk
A heat warning remains in effect for Edmonton and almost all of Alberta.
Edmonton hit a high of 31.7 C on Tuesday. That was just shy of the July 16 record of 32.8 from 1941.
We'll get to the 33 C range Wednesday afternoon. The record for July 17 in 33.9 set in 1920.
Thunderstorms will develop in the foothills once again this afternoon and they'll track eastward through the evening.
Some of those storms will fizzle out before getting to the QE2, but a few may be able to move as far east as the Edmonton and Red Deer regions.
So, I've thrown a slight risk of an evening thunderstorm into the forecast for Edmonton today.
Through the next 5 to 7 days, temperatures in much of Alberta will reach the low to mid 30s for afternoon highs.
Morning lows will be in the 15 to 20 degree range.
For Edmonton, the morning lows will likely be even warmer. We'll probably get lows in the 18 to 22 degree range.
So, it's not just the daytime heat that'll be an issue with this heat wave. We're not going to get any relief overnight/morning AND it will end up being one of, if not THE, longest-duration heat waves on record.
We'll go seven or eight consecutive days above 30 C. There will likely be some daily record highs that get set, but the duration could be a record-setter too.
Here are the longest stretches of consecutive days above 30.0 degrees in Edmonton:
- 2021 - 7 days
- 1961 - 6 days
- 1941 - 5 days
*10 other years have had 4-day stretches
We're on pace for a record-setting 8 straight days of 30+ heat (possibly 9).
The only thing that MIGHT become an issue is wildfire smoke. There are some concerns signals as we head into the weekend.
I'm not ready to put "smoke" into the Edmonton forecast just yet. But, there's a chance it moves into the region.
In the short-term, wildfire smoke continues to be an issue in northern AB (particularly in the NE).
The latest modelling keeps that smoke out of the Edmonton area and out of most of central/north-central AB today and Thursday.
However, with fires now burning in the BC interior, smoke from THOSE fires could move into western and southern AB Friday, with a chance of creeping northeast toward the Edmonton region by the weekend.
It's something we'll keep a close eye on in the coming days.
ONE LAST THING:
We'll be closer to record highs than average highs right through the duration of the heat wave.
Here are the best chances for new record highs:
Wednesday, July 17
Forecast: 33
Record: 33.9 - 1920
Friday, July 19
Forecast: 34
Record: 33.3 - 1979
Sunday, July 21
Forecast: 34
Record: 32.8 - 1945
Monday, July 22
Forecast: 35
Record: 34.5 - 2006
Tuesday, July 23
Forecast: 35
Record: 33.4 - 2006
Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today - Mainly sunny.
RECORD: 33.9 - 1920
High: 33 **humidex near 38 this afternoon
Tonight - 30% chance of a thunderstorm this evening. Otherwise, just a few clouds.
9pm: 29
Thursday - Sunny.
RECORD: 34.4 - 1941
Morning Low: 20
Afternoon High: 33 **humidex near 38
Friday - Mainly sunny.
RECORD: 33.3 - 1979
Morning Low: 21
Afternoon High: 34
Saturday - Mainly sunny.
RECORD: 33.9 - 1936
Morning Low: 21
Afternoon High: 32
Sunday - Mainly sunny.
RECORD: 32.8 - 1945
Morning Low: 22
Afternoon High: 34
Monday - Mainly sunny.
RECORD: 34.5 - 2006
Morning Low: 22
Afternoon High: 35
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