EDMONTON -- March 2021 is definitely coming in like a “lamb” and you might be wondering if that means we’re in for a nasty finish to the month.

The old saying for March is: In like a lamb, out like a lion. Or, the inverse – In like a lion, out like a lamb.

 

But, is there any truth to that?

The short answer is: Mostly NO, but a bit of yes.

 

There’s no statistical evidence to back up the saying.

In the past 10 years, Edmonton has had five years that came in like a lamb or lion and went out the opposite way.

That means the other 5 years (half of the time), the month came in AND ended the same way.

So, there’s no guarantee that this warm start to March will mean stormy or cold weather at the end of the month.

 

BUT…there’s a grain of truth to all of these old adages.

The saying probably came about because Spring is a “swingy” time for weather. You have lingering cold, wintry air to the north and a warming airmass to the south.

That large temperature differential can lead to two things:

1 – Big swings in temperature are more likely as waves in the jetstream move through. In the middle of winter or summer, there’s just not as much of a temperature difference between the two sides of the jetstream. But, in Spring, a drop in the jetstream can give us a dramatic drop in temperature in short order (like the one we saw at the end of next week).

2 – Spring’s wider temperature differential can also help generate some bigger snowfalls. Most of the larger one-day snowstorms come in Spring or Autumn. We get almost as much snow in Mar/April (33 cm) as we do in Jan/Feb (38 cm). BUT, the Jan/Feb snow is usually spread over a larger number of days while the Spring snows come in shorter, heavier doses.

The two months with the largest one-day snowfalls are April and November.

April – 38 cm

November - 40 cm

 

So, there’s no evidence that a “lamb” start to March means for sure we’ll get a cold or snowy end to the month. ‘

But, as anyone who’s lived in Alberta for a while knows, March and April still have a lot of “lion-esque” winter storm potential. Enjoy the warmth while it’s here. We’re probably not done with snow or cold just yet. It just might not line up nicely with the end of this month.