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Josh Classen's forecast: Extreme cold alerts still in effect, but milder over weekend

wxblog Dec. 2 2022
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Yes, temperatures will start to climb this weekend. But, it's still going to feel cold.

We'll get to those details in a moment. Today: sunshine, wind around 5-10 km/h and temperatures going from the mid -20s this morning to around -20 C this afternoon.

Wind won't be ridiculously strong, but enough to give us wind chill in the -30s this morning and around -27 this afternoon.

So, that puts us in a risk of frostbite in as little as 10-30 minutes.

Here are the thresholds:

  • wind chill -28 to -39: 10-30 min
  • wind chill -40 to -47: 5-10 min
  • wind chill -48 to -54: 2-5 min

 

OK...looking ahead to the weekend:

Temperatures in the mid -20s Saturday morning, feeling like the -30s with wind chill.

We'll "warm" to -10 C in the afternoon, but the wind chill will be around -18.

Sunday starts around -13 C with a wind chill near -21.

Edmonton probably gets to around -8 C in the afternoon, but wind chill will have it feeling more like -15.

 

It's a catch-22.

The arctic air aloft shifts off to the east and some milder air moves into the upper levels (at least, into western and southern Alberta).

With a strong enough westerly wind, some of that milder air gets mixed down to the surface and raises the temperature.

BUT...because of the stronger wind, you get a wind chill making it feel five to 10 degrees colder than it reads on thermometers.

 

AND...actual temperatures drop once again Monday/Tuesday as the arctic air slides back in.

Looking LONG range: there's some milder air coming in for Wednesday/Thursday next week (maybe even up around -5 C).

But the latest Canadian model runs are indicating highs in the -10 C to -15 C range toward the end of next week. So, the mid-week "warming" may not be very sustained.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

 

Today - Sunny with a few clouds. Wind: 10 km/h

*** wind chill: around -33 in the morning. around -27 in the afternoon.

High: -20

 

Tonight - A few clouds. Wind: 5-10 km/h

9pm: -22 ***wind chill near -27

 

Saturday - Sunny with a few afternoon clouds. Breezy.

Wind: 10-20 gusting to 30 km/h

Morning Low: -26 ***wind chill near -35

Afternoon High: -10 ***wind chill near -18

 

Sunday - Mix of sun & cloud. Breezy.

Wind: 15-20 gusting to 30 km/h

Morning Low: -13 ***wind chill near -21

Afternoon High: -8 ***wind chill near -15

 

Monday - Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of flurries.

Morning Low: -16

Afternoon High: -14

 

Tuesday - Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: -23

Afternoon High: -19

 

Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of flurries.

Morning Low: -15

Afternoon High: -7 

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