Josh Classen's forecast: The heat returns this weekend

It'll be another unsettled afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms across central and north-central Alberta today.

Temperatures should climb to around 21 C this afternoon (the average high for May 11 is 16 C).

After today, the pattern shifts in a BIG way. These past few days of cloudier, wetter and "cooler" weather will give way to sun, heat and an extended dry spell.

A strong upper ridge will move in through the day Friday and that'll become a heat dome over the province through the weekend and into early next week.

A heat dome is when you have VERY warm air aloft and a strong upper level high high-pressure system.

That hot air in the mid and upper levels prevents cloud development and promotes surface heating.

AND...that's exactly what we'll see this weekend and early next week.

Temperatures will be 12 to 16 degrees above average with highs in the 28 to 32 C range in Edmonton.

The term "heat dome" brings back memories of the 2021 B.C. heat wave. AND...this one may be just as strong.

BUT...it won't be as hot.

That's because the B.C. heat dome developed in late June, while ours is occurring in early/mid May.

It's not only getting hot and sunny, it's also going to turn breezy through the weekend with southerly wind speeds around 15 km/h gusting to 30 km/h.

None of that is good news for the fire situation.

Most (if not all) of the province will likely be in a "very high" or "extreme" fire risk through this Mother's Day weekend and into at least the first half of next week.

When will the heat dome break down? Probably around the early to middle part of next week.

But, it doesn't look like it's getting cool. Temperatures should still be above average.

Once we get to the middle of next week, though...we're likely back to some late-day showers/thunderstorms.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Sun this morning. Increasing afternoon cloud.

40% chance of showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon.

High: 21

 

Tonight - Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms early this evening.

Clouds breaking after midnight.

9pm: 13

 

Friday - Mainly sunny.

Morning Low: 9

Afternoon High: 25

 

Saturday - Mainly sunny. Breezy.

Morning Low: 12

Afternoon High: 28

 

Sunday - Mainly sunny. Breezy.

Morning Low: 13

Afternoon High: 29

 

Monday - Mainly sunny.

Morning Low: 14

Afternoon High: 30

 

Tuesday - Mainly sunny. Breezy.

Morning Low: 14

Afteroon High: 31