NHL shot success has much to do with luck and circumstances, Oilers coach says

Edmonton Oilers winger Zach Hyman, middle, celebrates his goal with teammate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, left, as Florida Panthers defenceman Gustav Forsling looks on during Game 6 of the Stanley Cup final on June 21, 2024. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have feasted on National Hockey League goaltending in recent years.

At the beginning of this NHL campaign, however, the top-six Edmonton Oilers forwards are weathering puck-luck famines.

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Hyman, 32, led the Oilers in goal-scoring last season with a career-high 54, good for third in the league and converting 18.6 per cent of his shots.

Two years ago, Nugent-Hopkins recorded 37 goals – also a career high for the 31-year-old – while scoring at an 18.6-per-cent rate.

So far in 2024-25, both are languishing in the red-lamp-lighting department and well back of the league average shooting percentage of 10.5. 

Hyman sports a 5.9-per-cent shooting percentage on three goals, while Nugent-Hopkins sits at 4.6 per cent on two goals scored.

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch said Tuesday "a lot of luck and a lot of circumstances" dictate a player's success scoring goals.

"A lot of it obviously has to do with what you're doing," Knoblauch told media after practice, noting Hyman's career shooting percentage average is typically 14 per cent (close, the injured winger's average is currently 13.4).

"But if you're looking at a player who always shoots at about a five per cent, he's probably a five-per-cent shooter, depending on if he doesn't shoot very well, or the type of shots that he's taken drops that down ... A lot of it is bearing down and making sure you finish your opportunities when you are ready. It's just not clear cut ... there's a lot of circumstances."

Nugent-Hopkins's career shooting percentage sits at 11.9 per cent.

"You could say that Nuge isn't taking the same quality shots as he should be," Knoblauch said.

"I think of the last two or three games, I know Nuge ripped one off the crossbar, and (Saturday) night, hit the butt end of the goalie stick. There's two goals. If those two goals go in, he's probably at his norm."

Knoblauch said some players are more exceptional shooters than others, including one of his team's stars, Leon Draisaitl, who has a career shooting percentage of 18.5 per cent and is enjoying a 26.7-per-cent this season to share the NHL goal-scoring league with Florida's Sam Reinhart with 16.

He said several factors affect a player's shooting percentage.

"Leon obviously can shoot the puck really well, and obviously that one-timer (type of shot Draisaitl is known to use often, particularly on the power play) at a bad angle is difficult for the goalie to save, and if you hit the net, that's a good percentage that's going to go in the net. Also, if he misses the net, it doesn't count against the shooting percentage, because it didn't hit the net."

Oilers players on Tuesday used practice time to work on their skill sets, something that's not often done during the season, Knoblauch said, adding that players typically do skill work in the summer but that Oilers players didn't do as much of it this past off-season given how short it was due to playing until the very last possible NHL date, Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in late June.

"For them to do it in the summer, obviously it's an important thing, a part of their game, and then during the season, it's very minimal," he said.

"Because we play so many games and the practices, we have to carve out some time for the players to work on that, because I think it is important that they are touching the puck and they're stick handling and they're feeling good about their game to make plays."