What is preferential voting and how will it shape the UCP leadership contest?
One political scientist says the United Conservative Party's leadership vote result on Thursday night will come down to how many voting rounds need to occur under the preferential voting system.
What is preferential voting, and how does it work? Here's what you need to know.
Unlike provincial elections, which rely on a first-past-the-post system, the UCP bylaws call for leadership contests to use preferential ballots.
"In order to be elected leader, a candidate must receive over 50 per cent of the valid votes cast," the bylaws state.
Each ballot is worth one vote, but electors select the candidates in their order of preference, with the first choice being their most preferred candidate. Members can rank as many or as few candidates as they wish.
When tabulating results, should a leadership contestant receive more than 50 per cent of the total number of first-preference ballots cast, that candidate is the winner.
If no single candidate garners the required threshold, the contestant with the least amount of first-preference votes is dropped. Ballots for the dropped candidate are then redistributed to whomever those voters selected as their second choice.
That process is repeated until a candidate can meet the more than 50 per cent threshold.
Since seven candidates are vying for the position of UCP's top job, voters could select their order of preference for seven contestants, and there will be a maximum of seven rounds of voting, if necessary.
The UCP governance manual states the result of each round of voting should be publicly announced once completed.
In the unlikely event there is ever a tie, the UCP leadership election committee chair's ballot would be counted to determine which contestant is eliminated.
In Alberta, provincial elections use first-past-the-post, where electors select one candidate on a ballot, with the contestant who earns the highest number of votes being elected.
Under that system, the candidate with the most votes can win, which can often mean they are elected without an absolute majority.
'NEVER RULE OUT UNPREDICTABLE THINGS'
Political scientist Chaldeans Mensah described the preferential ballot system as a "tricky system" that can create surprises depending on which candidate is dropped after the first ballot.
"Never rule out unpredictable things to happen with the preferential ballot system," Mensah said. "Everything depends on who gets dropped out of the count in the first ballot."
For this contest, Mensah, with MacEwan University, believes it will ultimately result in a two-horse race between Danielle Smith and Travis Toews.
"If she doesn't do so well on the first ballot, then that sets up the potential for someone to come from behind," he added.
"If it's a short contest, maybe one, two, three rounds, I think Danielle Smith will likely win it."
Five other people are running to lead the UCP and become premier-designate of Alberta: Brian Jean, Rebecca Schulz, Rajan Sawhney, Leela Aheer, and Todd Loewen.
The new leader is expected to be announced after 7:30 p.m.
With files from CTV News Edmonton's Diego Romero
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Canadian gov't proposes new foreign influence registry as part of wide-spanning new bill
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government is proposing a suite of new measures and law changes aimed at countering foreign interference in Canada, amid extensive scrutiny over past meddling attempts and an ever-evolving threat landscape.
Boeing Starliner capsule's first crewed test flight postponed
The long-awaited first crewed test flight of Boeing's new Starliner space capsule was called off for at least 24 hours over a technical issue that launch teams were unable to resolve in time for the planned Monday night lift-off.
Teacher charged in historical sexual assault of Calgary teenage girl
Calgary police have charged a teacher with the alleged sexual assault of a teenage girl more than 20 years ago.
Winnipeg man admits to killing four women, argues he's not criminally responsible
Defence lawyers of Jeremy Skibicki have admitted in court the accused killed four Indigenous women, but argues he is not criminally responsible for the deaths by way of mental disorder – this latest development has triggered a judge-alone trial rather than a jury trial.
Man banned from owning animals after fatal Calgary dog attack
The owner of three Calgary dogs that got loose and mauled a woman to death in 2022 has been ordered to pay a $15,000 fine within one year and banned from owning any animal for 15 years.
East-end Ottawa family dealing with massive rat infestation
Residents in Ottawa’s Elmridge Gardens complex are dealing with a rat infestation that just won’t go away. Now, after doing everything they can to try to fix the issue, they are pleading with the city to step in and help.
Mediterranean staple may lower your risk of death from dementia, study finds
A daily spoonful of olive oil could lower your risk of dying from dementia, according to a new study by Harvard scientists.
An El Nino-less summer is coming. Here's what that could mean for Canada
As Canadians brace themselves for summer temperatures, forecasters say a weakening El Nino cycle doesn’t mean relief from the heat.
Newfoundland and Labrador latest province to tighten rules on Airbnbs
Newfoundland and Labrador is the latest jurisdiction to bring in stricter rules for short-term rentals, with a coming set of regulations that will force operators to register with the provincial government.