Josh Classen's forecast: Chilly today, cold for the rest of the week

Some arctic air has started to spill into Alberta from the northwest and it's going to get "trapped" over Alberta in the coming days.

There's a strong are of low pressure in southeast Manitoba that's producing heavy snow in Saskatchewan and a storm system off the west coast.

It's between those two systems that the cold air is being drawn down over Alberta and since that low-pressure system off to the east is so "beefy," instead of the cold just glancing off us and moving further east...it's going to settle in over us.

Once it does, it's not going anywhere any time soon. We'll likely be in the arctic airmass AT LEAST until the end of next week.

Now, if you're saying to yourself, "it doesn't feel that cold out there," that's likely because the cold spell hasn't really arrived yet; it's just beginning.

The coldest air is still ahead of us. Edmonton hit 0 C yesterday, we should be around -5 C for a high this afternoon and then closer to -10 C for highs Wednesday-Friday.  And...the weekend is shaping up even colder, with highs in the -11 C to -14 C range.

Morning temperatures are forecast to be in the -12 C to -17 C range for Wednesday-Saturday.

By early next week, we could be looking at some mornings near -20 C.

This IS unusual for November. Cold spells like this have held off until December or January in recent history.

We could see six of seven days with daytime highs below -10 C.

In the past five years combined, we've only had NINE days with daytime highs below -10 C in November. Five of those nine were in one year; a little mini cold snap in early November of 2022. So...it's pretty uncommon to have daytime highs of -10 C or colder in November in Edmonton.

At the very least - we'll get about 10 (or more) days with daytime highs below -5 C. In the past five years combined, Edmonton has only had a total of 19 of those days.

I'll show you the numbers on that in a moment, but let's quickly talk about snow.

 

We'll get some snow in northwest Alberta today, but no really heavy accumulation.

Northeast Alberta sees some of the Saskatchewan snow blow in late Thursday.

For Edmonton, there's a chance of a few flurries or light snow on Thursday, nothing too significant for accumulation.

THEN...Friday and Saturday have a better chance for light snow in the area. Potential accumulation is uncertain at this point (but several centimetres is possible).

The heaviest snow looks like it'll be across southern Alberta on Friday and Saturday, though.

 

Ok...here's a look at the "cold days" we've had in November over the past five years.

2023:

• only 2 days with highs below zero (-1 both days)

2022:

• 9 days below -5 for highs
• 5 days below -10 for highs

2021:

• 0 days with highs below -5

2020:

• 3 days with highs below -5
• 1 day with a high below -10

2019:

• 7 days with highs below -5
• 3 days with highs below -10

 

Looking back even further, 2014 also had a similar stretch of cold weather in November. So, in the past decade, only two years (2022 and 2014) have had cold spells like what we're heading into.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Morning clouds. Sunny breaks this afternoon.

High: -5

 

Tonight - A few clouds.

9pm: -11

 

Wednesday - Increasing cloud in the morning. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon.

Morning Low: -16

Afternoon High: -10

 

Thursday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of light snow.

Morning Low: -13

Afternoon High: -9

 

Friday - Cloudy. 60% chance of snow.

Morning Low: -13

Afternoon High: -10

 

Saturday - Cloudy. 60% chance of snow.

Morning Low: -14

Afternoon High: -12