Delta variant poses 4th-wave risk without linking reopening to second doses: docs
Alberta's plan for a great summer could give way to a not-so-great fall, experts are warning, because of the fast-growing delta COVID-19 variant.
The strain, which was first found in India, is thought to be up to twice as transmissible as the alpha variant first found in the United Kingdom, according to early evidence. The former is behind a sharp spike in cases in parts of the U.K., even as other strains drop.
Studies there show one shot of vaccine – on which Alberta's reopening plan is founded – offers less protection.
"The emerging evidence is showing that one shot, although offers good protection, is not as strong against some of these variants," infectious diseases expert Dr. Craig Jenne told CTV News Edmonton, pointing out variants are Alberta's most dominant strains.
According to Alberta Health, a first dose of an mRNA vaccine, like the Pfizer and Moderna products, offers 73 per cent protection against the alpha variant. That immunity is boosted to 91 per cent with a second dose.
A first shot of those vaccines is also 75 per cent effective, and a second shot 89 per cent effective, against the gamma variant, first found in Brazil.
But against the delta strain, one dose only offers 33 per cent protection, and two doses 88 per cent protection.
- Delta variant heightens urgency for second doses to stop spread, scientists say
- WHO now using Greek alphabet for coronavirus variant names
"What’s happening in the United Kingdom at the moment is they’re seeing very rapid spread of this delta variant and they had adopted a very similar approach to Canada in emphasizing to everyone to get their first vaccine," Dr. Noel Gibney explained. "But we're moving relatively slowly on the second vaccines, although they are slightly ahead of Canada."
He co-chairs the pandemic planning committee of the Edmonton Medical Zone Staff Association and says the province is at risk of a fourth wave in the fall without higher second-dose rates or other protective measures.
"It seems kind of strange to be able to give that forecast so far ahead but that was very much the case with the U.K. variant where it was apparent in mid-February we were going to be in trouble in April," Gibney said. "With that kind of warning, we do have the opportunity to make sure that we can stave this off."
PANDEMIC NOT OVER: DOCTOR
According to the latest data, Alberta has identified 126 cases of the variant – but there could be more because not all positive cases were tested for variants of concern during the third wave.
"The problem with the current reopening is … approximately 40 per cent of the population – so the 30 per cent who are not vaccinated as well as those 12 and under – do not have protection. So there is a risk that the virus will transmit in that part of the community," Jenne told CTV News Edmonton.
The province could move to Stage 2 as soon as June 10, seeing as it has already met the threshold of having 60 per cent of the eligible population vaccinated and fewer than 500 hospitalizations.
Stage 3 will start at a minimum of two weeks later, once 70 per cent of the eligible population has had one dose. Almost all restrictions will be dropped then, and the province plans on allowing big events such as the Calgary Stampede to run.
- Alberta expected to enter Stage 2 of reopening this week: What will change?
- 'Truly near the end': Alberta announces 3-stage reopening plan linked to vaccinations, hospitalizations
"Anyone who thinks that it’s over just because we’ve had 60 to 70 per cent of our population vaccinated with one shot is mistaken," Gibney said.
Premier Jason Kenney has acknowledged a first dose of vaccine doesn't give full protection, but has said he expects all Albertans who were given a second dose to be fully immunized by the end of the summer.
Currently, anyone vaccinated in March can book their second dose. In one week, Albertans who were vaccinated in April can book for a second dose.
Two shots of AstraZeneca is considered 66 per cent effective against the delta variant, Gibney said, "way more effective" than any of Alberta's flu shots.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
B.C. tenants evicted for landlord's use after refusing large rent increase to take over neighbouring suite
Ashley Dickey and her mother rented part of the same Coquitlam duplex in three different decades under three different landlords.
MPP Sarah Jama asked to leave Ontario legislature for wearing keffiyeh
MPP Sarah Jama was asked to leave the Legislative Assembly of Ontario by House Speaker Ted Arnott on Thursday for wearing a keffiyeh, a garment which has been banned at Queen’s Park.
Mountain guide dies after falling into a crevasse in Banff National Park
A man who fell into a crevasse while leading a backcountry ski group deep in the Canadian Rockies has died.
Expert warns of food consumption habits amid rising prices
A new survey by Dalhousie University's Agri-Food Analytics Lab asked Canadians about their food consumption habits amid rising prices.
Here's why provinces aren't following Saskatchewan's lead on the carbon tax home heating fight
After Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the federal government would still send Canada Carbon Rebate cheques to Saskatchewan residents, despite Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe's decision to stop collecting the carbon tax on natural gas or home heating, questions were raised about whether other provinces would follow suit. CTV News reached out across the country and here's what we found out.
Montreal actress calls Weinstein ruling 'discouraging' but not surprising
A Montreal actress, who has previously detailed incidents she had with disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, says a New York Court of Appeals decision overturning his 2020 rape conviction is 'discouraging' but not surprising.
Charlie Woods, son of Tiger, shoots 81 in U.S. Open qualifier
Charlie Woods failed to advance in a U.S. Open local qualifying event Thursday, shooting a 9-over 81 at Legacy Golf & Tennis Club.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye make it four NFL drafts with quarterbacks going 1-3
Caleb Williams is heading to the Windy City, aiming to become the franchise quarterback Chicago has sought for decades.
Improve balance and build core strength with this exercise
When it comes to cardiovascular fitness, you may tend to focus on activities that move you forward, such as walking, running and cycling.