Josh Classen's forecast: Smoke and heat for the weekend

A cool morning across most of the province with a lot of areas getting close to the freezing mark and a few spots slipping just below 0 C.

The low of 5 C at Edmonton's Blatchford weather station is the coolest temperature in the city since we hit 3 C on April 27, three weeks ago.

It should just be a one-off though, as temperatures are expected to climb Friday through Sunday.

Afternoon highs will be impacted by how smoky it is, but I think we'll get into the 25 to 30 C range for those three days.

The smoke was not as thick as the modelling had suggested for this morning.

AND...with a light southeast wind through the day, if you look at the air quality readings to the southeast of the Edmonton area, it looks like much of today will be a "low risk" day for AQHI.

I'm putting "low to moderate risk" in my forecast, but I think most of the day should just be a bit hazy, not overly smoky.

Friday's outlook is PROBABLY smokier than today.

The wind will swing around to the southwest and then become northwest later in the day.

The modelling suggests a really thick blanket of smoke will move into the central Alberta (including Edmonton and area) by Friday afternoon/evening.

If that modelling is correct, late Friday could look a lot like Wednesday morning did.

Whether that smoke sticks around through Saturday remains to be seen. Again, the modelling suggests at least some of the smoke will.

As I said earlier this week: The safest bet is to expect smoke of varying intensities over the coming days. At times it'll thicken up, and at times it'll be less evident. Timing exactly when those changes in intensity remains a bit of educated guesswork.

Aside from the smoke: Mainly sunny skies today and tomorrow in the Edmonton region and then "partly cloudy" for Saturday with just a slight risk of a brief, spotty shower.

Increasing cloud on Sunday with a chance of late-day showers or thunderstorms.

THEN...it's still looking like we have the potential for some heavier, steadier rain to hit central and north-central Alberta Monday/Tuesday.

This could finally be the soaker that we'll all been waiting for.

It's several days off, but at least the pattern looks promising.

 

Here's the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Mainly sunny & hazy. Wind SE 10-15 km/h

Air quality likely in the low to moderate risk range.

High: 21

 

Tonight - Mainly clear skies with a bit of smoke.

Air quality likely in the low to moderate risk range.

9pm: 17

 

Friday - Mainly sunny.

Smoke expected to increase in the afternoon/evening.

Morning Low: 12

Afternoon High: 27

 

Saturday - Partly cloudy. Smoky conditions likely.

Morning Low: 14

Afternoon High: 28

 

Sunday - Partly cloudy. 30% chance of late-day shower or thunderstorm.

Morning Low: 15

Afternoon High: 28

 

Monday - Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers or periods of rain.

Morning Low: 13

Afternoon High: 18

 

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of showers or periods of rain.

Morning Low: 5

Afternoon High: 16