UCP released an 'election budget' that runs from Alberta's contentious issues: pundits

As the dust settled from Alberta's new budget drop on Tuesday, two things became clear to analysts: the UCP government spent a lot but dodged dealing with some big controversies.

Alberta's latest fiscal plan includes $23 billion over three years for capital projects and about $70 billion a year in spending going forward.

It also sees a $12.3 billion surplus prediction from the summer drop to $10.3 billion this fiscal year and $2.4 billion in 2023-24.

"It very much is an election budget. They had a lot of money and they took the opportunity to spend a lot of money," said pollster and political commentator Janet Brown.

"They decided to take this windfall and spend it. And that's what struck me most about the budget."

Finance Minister Travis Toews sold the document as a stable plan focused on paying down debt, improving public safety and investing in health care and education.

"Budget 2023 is securing Alberta's advantage," Toews said.

"Funding in this budget will drive more investment, more job creation, more population growth and more opportunities for Albertans to find well-paying jobs."

Brown said high oil and gas revenues over the past couple of years have been a financial and political gift to the UCP and new Premier Danielle Smith.

"She's going into an election in just three months, and she has so much money to play with. That gives her a real advantage to win people over," Brown said.

She and economist Trevor Tombe both pointed out that the UCP's spending plan surpasses what the NDP was planning to pay out when they were in government.

"So they're not only ratcheting up from their own prior plans, they've ratcheted up beyond even the prior NDP government and that's all thanks to resource revenues," Tombe said.

The government also held the line on taxes and fees.

Brown said that gives Albertans very little to choose from in an upcoming May election, at least in terms of fiscal preferences.

"For voters, it's really going to come down to who do you most trust with this money? Who do you think has the best judgment in spending the money in the most effective way and in the fairest way?" she said.

Absent from the UCP financial plan are two ideas some MLAs and members have been encouraging for years: a new provincial police force and an Alberta pension plan.

There was no money for either proposal in the budget. Toews said it's because those decisions still need to be finalized.

Political scientist Lori Williams from Mount Royal University in Calgary said Albertans are owed some clarity about what the UCP wants to do in those areas.

"People wonder if their pensions might be in jeopardy or whether the province is going to go ahead with the provincial police force, which the majority of Albertans oppose," she said.

"And that’s a lot of questions for things that aren’t popular or concerns that Albertans have. And if those questions aren’t adequately answered, then I am not sure the money is going to be enough to win folks over."

The Alberta NDP had a lot of criticisms about the budget, from a lack of money to build schools to not getting hospital projects in Edmonton and Red Deer done fast enough.

Leader Rachel Notely is trying to convince Albertans they cannot trust her opponents to not bring in major changes if Smith and the UCP are reelected.

"Most programs under their so-called affordability plan have an expiry plan right after the election date," Notley said. "That is so deeply cynical."

Albertans are expected to vote on May 29 and polls predict a tight race between the UCP and NDP.

With files from CTV News Edmonton's Nahreman Issa and Adam Lachacz